The NBA is back — only three months after it should have been in the first place.
Last season brought the NBA to a new level. The excitement surrounding the sport grew immensely thanks to the Big Three, the New York Knicks’ return to respectability and Blake Griffin’s high-flying acrobatics. It was my second season reporting on the league full-time, and while I had covered it occasionally in the years prior, I knew it was as popular as ever.
Then came the lockout. The players and owners fought for months, publicly in most cases. Hardcore fans were disgusted. Casual fans stopped offering the slightest bit of attention. It was sad. The league regressed.
I don’t see how the NBA will be able to recover as well as the NFL, which is as popular as ever following their summer lockout. The NBA just doesn’t draw the type of attention the NFL does. Even ESPN can’t give the NBA enough air time with the NFL playoffs nearing. The return to respectability is going to take time — I’m talking years, not months — for it to bring back those casual fans and regain the hearts of the hardcore ones. But it can, and it will.
Those same aforementioned noteworthy features from last season are back in 2011-12. LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh have one year’s experience being on the floor together, the Knicks added center Tyson Chandler in what may be the best move of the offseason, and the Clippers have gone to laughingstock to respectability with Griffin and the addition of Chris Paul.
The 66-game shortened season should prove difficult for many teams, including older ones such as the Boston Celtics and San Antonio Spurs. With little time to rest in between games, the chances of season-ending injuries increases. That could mean less minutes for certain veterans, while increased floor time for rookies and sophomores. I also foresee a major use of the NBA D-League, which will provide a quick roster fill should a need arise.
Think of this year as a fast break — it’s going to fly by. Before you know it, the Finals will be here and we’ll be talking about the next big free agency period featuring Dwight Howard and Deron Williams. Until then, here are my predictions for the 2011-12 NBA season:
MVP Picks:
1) LeBron James, Miami Heat – James had anything but an MVP-type performance in last season’s NBA Finals, but that’s reason enough to light a fire under the two-time award winner. Having one year under his belt working alongside Wade and Bosh can only help James’ efforts for a third MVP trophy. He finished second in scoring last season and has worked hard to establish himself as one of the better defenders in the game. A Miami title this year seems very likely.
2) Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder – The NBA’s reigning scoring champion is so close to taking home the MVP award. If Oklahoma City can improve on their 55 regular season wins and Durant continues to pour in nearly 28 points a game, it will be hard for voters to pass on the youngster.
3) Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls – It would be hard to not include the latest league MVP on this list. Rose proved winning and talent bodes best in the minds of those who submit ballots. Rose led the Bulls to a league-best 62-20 record and finished third in scoring (27.1) and assists (7.7). Rose is also a great ambassador for the game.
Defensive Player of the Year: Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic – Howard is one of the most intimidating — at least on the court — and talented big men in the game today. No player comes close to having his height and skill set, both offensively and defensively, around the rim. It’s one of the reasons he’s taken home this award the last three seasons. This is a contract year for the 26-year-old, and unlike many other sports, his performance in 2011-12 won’t affect him signing a max deal. Don’t expect him to relax his play because of this though. Howard has to find out if he’s what’s carrying the Magic or if he needs to go somewhere else to take home a championship.
Rookies to Watch:
1) Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers: I spoke with Irving the night the Cavs won the lottery. I genuinely felt he wouldn’t mind it if the Cavs were to take him first overall, which they did. Irving is very close with his family, most of whom are from the East Coast and having them nearby will certainly help his transition to the NBA. It’s only a matter of time before Irving plays himself into the starting lineup. He’s currently penciled in behind Ramon Sessions, but with Baron Davis now gone, Irving’s playing time should still come in bunches.
2) Iman Shumpert, New York Knicks: Shumpert was such a surprise pick at No. 17, ESPN had trouble finding b-roll of the point guard to air so quickly. The Knicks lost out on Paul and let Chauncey Billups go in order to add Chandler. That bodes well for Shumpert, who will learn the pro position behind veteran guard Mike Bibby. There are few opportunities to crack the starting lineup in New York, but this is one of them. If Shumpert can make a quick impression on Mike DiAntoni, similar to what Landry Fields did, then he could find himself on the floor often.
3) Jimmer Fredette, Sacramento Kings: How could I compile a list of the rookies to keep an eye on this season and not include Jimmer? After all of the hype surrounding Tim Tebow and the way he’s performed, the Kings can only hope Fredette has the same effect on their franchise. Fredette, like Tebow, is one of the most highly touted players to come out of college in a long time. While Fredette’s skills and attributes weren’t traditional enough to entice eight other teams to select him — he was selected 10th overall by the Milwaukee Bucks and traded to Sacramento — he certainly will draw a crowd, and that’s primarily why the Kings, who may be in their last season in Sacramento, wanted him.
Sixth Man of the Year: Jason Terry, Dallas Mavericks – Reigning Sixth Man of the Year, Lamar Odom, is now Terry’s teammate in Dallas. Odom, who was dealt to the Mavericks in early December, figures to get starting minutes this season. That leaves the door open for Terry, who will come off the bench behind newly acquired shooting guard Vince Carter. Terry was a beast in the playoffs, raining threes at an amazing pace. If he can keep that up for a full season, the award should easily find its way to his trophy case.
Most Improved Player of the Year: Eddy Curry, Miami Heat – This is the longest shot of any prediction I make this season, but it could be a good one. Curry, who has played only 10 games over the last three campaigns, signed a one-year deal with the Heat this offseason. He’s known for consistently coming into training camp overweight, but this year he’s actually down a few pounds. Playing alongside three of the best players in the game could motivate the 10-year veteran, especially if he wants to win a title. Curry needs to get back to his double-digit scoring average in order to be taken seriously again.
Coach of the Year: Scott Brooks, Oklahoma City Thunder – The Thunder are so close to becoming one of the elite teams in the West. As one player explained last season, the Lakers, Mavs and Spurs are getting older, opening the door for younger teams such as OKC. Brooks’ team lost 4-1 to the Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals last season. It was a poor showing after a successful season. With Durant, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka and a fit Kendrick Perkins, the Thunder are poised to do bigger things in 2011-12. The players like Brooks and he has the talent to lead them to a Finals.
Scoring Champion: LeBron James, Miami
Rebounds Leader: Dwight Howard, Orlando
Assist Leader: Chris Paul, Los Angeles (C)
Steals Leader: Chris Paul, Los Angeles (C)
Blocks Leader: Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City
Team on the Rise: Los Angeles Clippers – No longer is it bad to be a Clippers fan, nor is it taboo to play for them. When out in L.A. to cover All-Star, I saw firsthand how much of a boost Griffin has brought to that franchise. Now throw in the addition of Paul, one of the top passers and backcourt defenders in the NBA, and this team has a chance to be very special. Keep in mind, Paul is a massive upgrade over Baron Davis, who Griffin loved getting the ball from before he was shipped to Cleveland. They should be able to create some highlight-reel dish-and-dunk plays regularly. I also think the re-signing of DeAndre Jordan, who is very underrated in my book, was a major move.
Team on the Decline: Dallas Mavericks – The Mavericks still have one of the game’s top players in Dirk Nowitzki, but the loss of Chandler, J.J. Barea and being one year older works against them. Dallas took home the NBA Championship last season and the pressure if off Dirk to win a title during his illustrious career. But with so many pieces close to retirement, the Mavs need to find some youth to bridge any gaps. It’s a good thing owner Mark Cuban has a fat wallet.
Playoff Picture:
Eastern Conference: Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls, New York Knicks, Boston Celtics, Atlanta Hawks, Orlando Magic, Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks
Western Conference: Los Angeles Lakers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Dallas Mavericks, San Antonio Spurs, Memphis Grizzlies, Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Clippers and Portland Trail Blazers
Eastern Conference Championship: Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks
Western Conference Championship: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Lakers
NBA Finals: Miami Heat over Oklahoma City Thunder
1) LeBron James, Miami Heat – James had anything but an MVP-type performance in last season’s NBA Finals, but that’s reason enough to light a fire under the two-time award winner. Having one year under his belt working alongside Wade and Bosh can only help James’ efforts for a third MVP trophy. He finished second in scoring last season and has worked hard to establish himself as one of the better defenders in the game. A Miami title this year seems very likely.
2) Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder – The NBA’s reigning scoring champion is so close to taking home the MVP award. If Oklahoma City can improve on their 55 regular season wins and Durant continues to pour in nearly 28 points a game, it will be hard for voters to pass on the youngster.
3) Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls – It would be hard to not include the latest league MVP on this list. Rose proved winning and talent bodes best in the minds of those who submit ballots. Rose led the Bulls to a league-best 62-20 record and finished third in scoring (27.1) and assists (7.7). Rose is also a great ambassador for the game.
Defensive Player of the Year: Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic – Howard is one of the most intimidating — at least on the court — and talented big men in the game today. No player comes close to having his height and skill set, both offensively and defensively, around the rim. It’s one of the reasons he’s taken home this award the last three seasons. This is a contract year for the 26-year-old, and unlike many other sports, his performance in 2011-12 won’t affect him signing a max deal. Don’t expect him to relax his play because of this though. Howard has to find out if he’s what’s carrying the Magic or if he needs to go somewhere else to take home a championship.
Rookies to Watch:
1) Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers: I spoke with Irving the night the Cavs won the lottery. I genuinely felt he wouldn’t mind it if the Cavs were to take him first overall, which they did. Irving is very close with his family, most of whom are from the East Coast and having them nearby will certainly help his transition to the NBA. It’s only a matter of time before Irving plays himself into the starting lineup. He’s currently penciled in behind Ramon Sessions, but with Baron Davis now gone, Irving’s playing time should still come in bunches.
2) Iman Shumpert, New York Knicks: Shumpert was such a surprise pick at No. 17, ESPN had trouble finding b-roll of the point guard to air so quickly. The Knicks lost out on Paul and let Chauncey Billups go in order to add Chandler. That bodes well for Shumpert, who will learn the pro position behind veteran guard Mike Bibby. There are few opportunities to crack the starting lineup in New York, but this is one of them. If Shumpert can make a quick impression on Mike DiAntoni, similar to what Landry Fields did, then he could find himself on the floor often.
3) Jimmer Fredette, Sacramento Kings: How could I compile a list of the rookies to keep an eye on this season and not include Jimmer? After all of the hype surrounding Tim Tebow and the way he’s performed, the Kings can only hope Fredette has the same effect on their franchise. Fredette, like Tebow, is one of the most highly touted players to come out of college in a long time. While Fredette’s skills and attributes weren’t traditional enough to entice eight other teams to select him — he was selected 10th overall by the Milwaukee Bucks and traded to Sacramento — he certainly will draw a crowd, and that’s primarily why the Kings, who may be in their last season in Sacramento, wanted him.
Sixth Man of the Year: Jason Terry, Dallas Mavericks – Reigning Sixth Man of the Year, Lamar Odom, is now Terry’s teammate in Dallas. Odom, who was dealt to the Mavericks in early December, figures to get starting minutes this season. That leaves the door open for Terry, who will come off the bench behind newly acquired shooting guard Vince Carter. Terry was a beast in the playoffs, raining threes at an amazing pace. If he can keep that up for a full season, the award should easily find its way to his trophy case.
Most Improved Player of the Year: Eddy Curry, Miami Heat – This is the longest shot of any prediction I make this season, but it could be a good one. Curry, who has played only 10 games over the last three campaigns, signed a one-year deal with the Heat this offseason. He’s known for consistently coming into training camp overweight, but this year he’s actually down a few pounds. Playing alongside three of the best players in the game could motivate the 10-year veteran, especially if he wants to win a title. Curry needs to get back to his double-digit scoring average in order to be taken seriously again.
Coach of the Year: Scott Brooks, Oklahoma City Thunder – The Thunder are so close to becoming one of the elite teams in the West. As one player explained last season, the Lakers, Mavs and Spurs are getting older, opening the door for younger teams such as OKC. Brooks’ team lost 4-1 to the Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals last season. It was a poor showing after a successful season. With Durant, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka and a fit Kendrick Perkins, the Thunder are poised to do bigger things in 2011-12. The players like Brooks and he has the talent to lead them to a Finals.
Scoring Champion: LeBron James, Miami
Rebounds Leader: Dwight Howard, Orlando
Assist Leader: Chris Paul, Los Angeles (C)
Steals Leader: Chris Paul, Los Angeles (C)
Blocks Leader: Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City
Team on the Rise: Los Angeles Clippers – No longer is it bad to be a Clippers fan, nor is it taboo to play for them. When out in L.A. to cover All-Star, I saw firsthand how much of a boost Griffin has brought to that franchise. Now throw in the addition of Paul, one of the top passers and backcourt defenders in the NBA, and this team has a chance to be very special. Keep in mind, Paul is a massive upgrade over Baron Davis, who Griffin loved getting the ball from before he was shipped to Cleveland. They should be able to create some highlight-reel dish-and-dunk plays regularly. I also think the re-signing of DeAndre Jordan, who is very underrated in my book, was a major move.
Team on the Decline: Dallas Mavericks – The Mavericks still have one of the game’s top players in Dirk Nowitzki, but the loss of Chandler, J.J. Barea and being one year older works against them. Dallas took home the NBA Championship last season and the pressure if off Dirk to win a title during his illustrious career. But with so many pieces close to retirement, the Mavs need to find some youth to bridge any gaps. It’s a good thing owner Mark Cuban has a fat wallet.
Playoff Picture:
Eastern Conference: Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls, New York Knicks, Boston Celtics, Atlanta Hawks, Orlando Magic, Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks
Western Conference: Los Angeles Lakers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Dallas Mavericks, San Antonio Spurs, Memphis Grizzlies, Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Clippers and Portland Trail Blazers
Eastern Conference Championship: Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks
Western Conference Championship: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Lakers
NBA Finals: Miami Heat over Oklahoma City Thunder
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