This might be the most painful time of year for me. You know the day I’m talking about, the one where I revisit my bold NFL predictions and stutter my way through an explanation of why they were so far off. But I’ll keep my head held high, for I did correctly choose the Super Bowl champion. The rest of my forecasting was decent, at best – a close but no cigar situation. I was spot on with one other prognostication, but I’ll make you read to find out which.
There’s much uncertainty that lies in the months ahead as we approach a labor situation. That’s one item I’m not going to make a bold prediction about because I believe we all hope for the same thing: resolution.
On a personal note: This was my sixth season covering NFL football. I’ve enjoyed every minute of it. I want to say thank you to the New York Giants and New York Jets, both of whom have welcomed me into their press boxes over the years. There aren’t’ two better examples of how media relations departments should be run than these two clubs.
View the complete 2010-11 NFL Preview
MVP Picks:
1) Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay; 2) Drew Brees, New Orleans; 3) Peyton Manning, Indianapolis
Result: I think we can all agree that Rodgers was not a bad selection at all. The guy led his team to a Super Bowl win with one of the best offensive performances in the history of the game (204 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions). Those numbers translated into him taking home the MVP trophy afterwards. His season (nearly 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns compared to 11 interceptions) wasn’t too shabby either. If not for Tom Brady, who was the league’s first unanimous selection in the history of the award, Rodgers would have likely received a number of first-place votes. Brady credentials were 3,900 yards with 36 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He did that with a crop of misfit receivers. The two-time winner was the correct choice.
Offensive Player of the Year: Chris Johnson, Tennessee
Result: I would have been a fool to think that Chris Johnson would fall flat in his quest for offensive dominance. The man said prior to this campaign that he was going to break the single-season rushing record. I believed Johnson and so did everyone who took him first overall in fantasy football. The third-year rusher didn’t disappoint (316 carries for 1,364 yards and 11 touchdowns), but he fell well shy of his intended goal. In the end, he finished third among all running backs, almost 300 yards shy of Arian Foster. This award went to Brady, too.
Defensive Player of the Year: Darrelle Revis, New York
Result: This was another one of those oh-so-close selections. Revis was by far the best cornerback in the league for a second straight season. Opposing quarterbacks feared the New York Jets cover man, often throwing very few balls in his direction. That resulted in a career-low 32 tackles and zero interceptions. Missing three games with a hamstring injury didn’t help Revis’ case. I believe AP voters like numbers though, and that’s what they saw with actual winner Troy Polamalu. The Pittsburgh Steeler safety bested Green Bay linebacker Clay Matthews for the award. Polamalu had 63 tackles, seven picks and an interception.
Rookies to Watch:
1) CJ Spiller, Buffalo; 2) Ryan Mathews, San Diego; 3) Ndamukong Suh, Detroit
Result: How could I miss seeing Sam Bradford, the number-one pick in last year’s draft, tossing for 3,500-plus yards and 18 touchdowns? Possibly because the St. Louis Rams have no reliable wide receivers, which we saw in their win-and-make-the-playoffs loss. Instead, I went with Spiller, who showed no signs of being the second coming of Thurman Thomas. The Buffalo Bills back only averaged 20.2 yards a game. He also had more fumbles (2) than touchdowns (1). I’ll chalk this one up as my worst selection.
Mathews hurts. I took him with what I think was the sixth pick in my fantasy football draft, and I was not alone in this thinking. Instead, I was rewarded with seven touchdowns, 678 yards, five fumbles and thoughts of whether to make him my keeper next year. It was nice to see him with a 120-yard, three-touchdown performance in Week 17. Too bad I was already out of the playoffs at that point.
Suh would have been the best choice out of this trio. The Detroit Lions defensive tackle racked up 66 tackles and 10 sacks in his first NFL season. That’s quite impressive for a 24-year-old. He took home the Defensive Rookie of the Year hardware, while Bradford got the offensive honor.
Comeback Player: Owen Daniels, Houston
Result: Last season I went with Michael Vick as the Comeback Player of the Year. This year, I took Owen Daniels, who came into the season off a torn ACL that limited him to eight games. I figured, Matt Schwab is his quarterback in a pass-first offense which means loads of work for his tight end. Then, Foster happened. Now, this failed selection isn’t completely on the shoulders of the league’s top rusher, but who knew the Houston Texans would have a running game? Daniels also missed five games this year, which didn’t help his numbers (471 yards, two touchdowns).
Vick, however, would run away with this honor — literally. The Philadelphia Eagles quarterback, along with Rodgers, was also in the discussion for Offensive Player of the Year and MVP. He set a career high in passer rating (100.2), passing touchdowns (21) and yards (3,018). Let me add he had just six interceptions, too. On the ground, Vick ran for 676 yards and nine touchdowns, all career highs. Giants head coach Tom Coughlin told me after the Eagles monster comeback against his team that Vick looks better than he ever did out there on the field.
Coach of the Year: Mike Shanahan, Washington
Result: I’ll be perfectly honest: A little piece of me was hoping Shanahan would turn the Redskins around. I’m a fan of theirs and figured if he could do it in Denver, he could do it in the nation’s capital. I was wrong. Washington finished 6-10, a record that looks better when you consider they have the 10th pick in this year’s NFL Draft. To be fair, I believe the Albert Haynesworth saga played a part in the team’s failure. The fact that Donovan McNabb couldn’t perform up to par also hurt.
Instead the honor went to Bill Belichick, the third time he’s taken home the hardware. The Patriots finished with the league’s best record (14-2), thanks in part to 205 net points, which is the difference between what they scored and surrendered. New England was also the lone team to go undefeated in their home stadium and one of two teams with 10 conference wins (Atlanta Falcons). Belichick is widely considered the best coach in the league, and his team’s performance this season proves exactly why that’s the belief.
Team on the Rise: Miami Dolphins
Result: The AFC East is the toughest division. The Jets and Patriots will be in the postseason almost every year, and that means only one remaining playoff spot. Miami finished in third place with a 7-9 record, the same as 2009-10. Their quarterback situation was shaky and a 2-4 record in the division isn’t going to help either. The Dolphins have potential, but the better selection should have been the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Coach Raheem Morris has a young group of players (quarterback Josh Freeman, running back LeGarrette Blount, wide receiver Mike Williams and linebacker Barrett Rudd) to build on. At 10-6 – Tampa Bay was 6-2 on the road, as opposed to 4-4 at home – they were the best team to miss the playoffs.
Team on the Decline: Minnesota Vikings
Result: Here is the second absolutely correct selection I made on the year. The Vikings (6-10) were simply horrible. Brett Favre showed no signs of greatness, Sidney Rice missed much of the year with an injury and they play in a stadium that can’t even stay up – okay, so the last one didn’t impact the actual team. Minnesota was one of the worst offensive teams in the league this season; so much so that their offensive-minded coach, Brad Childress, was fired midway through the year. Running back Adrian Peterson (1,298 yards and 12 touchdowns), receiver Percy Harvin (868 yards, five touchdowns), defensive end Jared Allen (11 sacks) and linebacker Chad Greenway (144 tackles) were about it for positives. The Vikings went from playing the NFC Championship game to last place, that’s about as steep a decline as possible.
Team Close to Becoming Elite: San Francisco 49ers
Result: This was going to be the year the Niners went back to the playoffs after seven years of absence. Instead, they finished with a 6-10 record, two wins shy of the previous season’s mark. When is San Francisco going to learn, Alex Smith is not the answer at quarterback? I understand they invested a first-overall pick in the guy, but it’s time to cut ties. Former Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh has taken over, which has installed some vitality into the organization. I don’t know if that’s enough though to take a step forward after the step back they took this year.
Playoff Picture:
AFC: New York (East), Baltimore (North), Indianapolis (South), San Diego (West), New England (Wild Card), Houston (Wild Card)
Result: San Diego and Houston were the two aforementioned teams to miss out on a playoff spot. Instead, the AFC Champion Pittsburgh Steelers were in, as were the Chiefs.
NFC: New York (East), Green Bay (North), New Orleans (South), San Francisco (West), Arizona (Wild Card), Dallas (Wild Card)
Result: Three NFC East teams in the playoffs? Was I nuts? This isn’t 2005. The Dallas Cowboys, Arizona Cardinals, Giants and 49ers all missed a run at the Lombardi Trophy. Their spots were instead taken by the Seattle Seahawks, Chicago Bears, Falcons and Eagles. If you picked the Seahawks to make the playoffs this year – I’m not even adding in with a sub-.500 record – congratulations to you.
AFC Championship: Baltimore over San Diego
NFC Championship: Green Bay over New Orleans
Super Bowl: Green Bay over Baltimore
Result: I’m ready to take a bow in congratulations for selecting the Packers to win it all. I can tell you that my thoughts prior to the season were that Rodgers was ready to make the jump to the elite tier of quarterbacks, while their defense was prepared to simply dominate. I was right on both fronts. I did believe the running game with Ryan Grant would also play a factor, but he was injured in the first game of the season. Brandon Jackson filled in for Grant, but didn’t put up wow-me numbers. James Starks, however, did, but they all came in the playoffs – that gets him bonus points. The Packers had the perfect combination of offense and defense to bring a title back to Green Bay.
Nobody thought the Steelers were going to be in the Super Bowl. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was suspended the first four games of the season, which meant Dennis Dixon had to stand behind center. Then, Dixon went down and 36-year-old Charlie Batch took the reigns. Batch played decent though and the Steelers went into their bye week with a 3-1 record and Roethlisberger back on the roster. That was the key moment of Pittsburgh’s season.
Baltimore (12-4) was not a bad selection. Joe Flacco is one of the best young arms in the league, something his 2010 numbers prove (3,622 yards, 25 touchdowns, 10 interceptions). All of the Ravens losses during the regular season came by five points or less, a testament to their strong defense. Pittsburgh, however, was just a little better on Jan. 15, knocking them off and out of the playoffs with a 31-24 win. Since the trend is for Super Bowl winners to not repeat, the Ravens might just be my early pick for 2011.